Political Review – realoutlook.com

Barack Obama all but had the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary wrapped up according to pollsters, the political pundits, the Obama camp as well as the Clinton camp. Every body but the voters. Consensus among the polls was that Obama’s lead was safely beyond the margin of error, as high as 10 percentage points in some cases. However, the earliest results indicated something different was coming about. When the day was done Hillary Clinton would finish with 39% of the Democratic vote to Barack Obama’s 36%.

Predicting the outcome here can be a tricky task in any year. New Hampshire’s is an open primary meaning registered independents have the option of voting in either the ranks of Democrats or Republicans. With a Republican candidate such as John McCain with a centrist domestic voting record, could pull a lot of otherwise Democratic leaning independents, particularly with Rudy Giuliani nearly absent. Add to that a much greater turnout at both ends of the age spectrum. Turnout in general was up about 33% over the 2000 primary according to a Union Leader article.

In the weeks leading up to the primary polls showed Mitt Romney with a substantial lead over a nearly dormant John McCain in the Republican race. Graphs from Real Clear Politics show stunning changes in the candidate’s poll numbers leading up to the primary. The final results were McCain with 37% to Romney’s 32%. Indications that Romney was recovering lost ground on the eve of the primary didn’t materialize.

There are some specifics on groups that turned out much different than anticipated. Women where expected to favor Obama. Exit polls show they cast their ballots for Hillary instead. Most notable was the change in unmarried women who were undecided. Some have attributed this to Hillary’s emotional appeals, others dare to say she benefited from racism that could show up in secret ballots that couldn’t be concealed in Iowa’s caucuses. Now one can be certain, but, I would add that the format of the ABC debates allowed both Hillary Clinton and John McCain more than ample opportunity to to reiterate the fact they have experience and accomplishment. And the voters of New Hampshire seem to have bought into believing being First Lady counts for experience. [ro_29]

This entry was posted on Friday, January 11th, 2008 at 3:59 pm and is filed under Election, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.